Should You Sell Your Team?: Understanding The Transfer Market Ahead Of TOTY
We’re four months into the FIFA cycle and we’ve already had a ton of big events in Ultimate Team such as Ones to Watch, Rulebreakers and FUTFreeze – but going into next week, we’re set to experience what may just be the biggest annual event in FUT – Team Of The Year.
Team Of The Year is an event that stretches far beyond Ultimate Team’s overarching ecosystem – so much so that even non-FIFA players follow TOTY very closely, and because of that, there’s an insane amount of hype around it.
The hype surrounding a big FUT event can result in what is known as a market crash.
A market crash within Ultimate Team is a situation whereby the general value of cards dips significantly.
During a market crash a player like Neymar could go from costing 700k coins to 500k coins – or even less than that in an extreme crash.
What Causes A Market Crash?
There are two things that trigger a market crash in Ultimate Team, namely Oversupply and Fear.
Here’s an in-depth look at how both factors facilitates a market crash;
Oversupply: To put things simply, Oversupply means an influx of cards on the FUT market.
When the supply of cards on the market is greater than their demand, the cards begin to lose their value, which, in turn, causes a market crash.
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Over-supply usually occurs during big events like TOTY.
During TOTY, lots of players around the world typically open packs with the hope of pulling a TOTY card…because of this mass pack opening, a large amount of cards get flooded onto the market creating oversupply and ultimately causing a market crash.
Fear: A fear-based market crash is somewhat ironic. It typically occurs because of the fear of oversupply.
You see, when a big event like TOTY approaches, tons of players start to panic because of an expected oversupply – this panic often results in a market crash.
It’s worth noting that a fear-based market crash isn’t as bad as an oversupply-based market crash.
What Happens To Your Coins During A Market Crash?
For the most part, your coins remain intact during a market crash, in fact, they even gain more “value” as you’ll be able to acquire players for less than they’d normally cost, allowing you to sell them for a significant profit when they bounce back to their normal prices.
Should You Sell Your Team Going Into TOTY
There’s likely to be two market crashes this month because of the TOTY event. We predict the first one will occur days before the TOTY event officially begins and it will be a fear-based crash, while the second one will occur when all the TOTY players are released into packs and it will be an oversupply-based crash.
In light of this, it would be wise to sell your team in the build up to TOTY in order to avoid taking a bit hit when the market crash occurs.
In the meantime, you can build a cheap team to play your weekend league and division rivals games with up until the crash ends.